@Article{TejadaPinellDalCorLafOva:2016:DeScBo,
               author = "Tejada Pinell, Graciela and Dalla Nora, El{\'o}i Lennon and 
                         Cordoba, Diana and Lafortezza, Raffaele and Ovando Leyton, Alex",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Royal Roads 
                         University} and {University of Bari} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands",
              journal = "Environmental Research",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "144",
                pages = "49--63",
                month = "Jan.",
             keywords = "Amazon forest, Deforestation scenarios, Land cover change (LCC) 
                         model, LuccME.",
             abstract = "Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision 
                         of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity 
                         conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, 
                         Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of 
                         agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands 
                         for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al 
                         Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise 
                         of promoting an alternative development model that would respect 
                         the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting 
                         rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 
                         300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was 
                         expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS 
                         conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, 
                         however, have since been in permanent tension. The government 
                         continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist 
                         methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 
                         13. million. ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem 
                         services. These actions raise major environmental and social 
                         concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still 
                         unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative 
                         land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for 
                         land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use 
                         the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover 
                         change model and run it under three different deforestation 
                         scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability 
                         scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786. ha, notably in 
                         previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest 
                         extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, 
                         deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads 
                         spreading across 25,698,327. ha in 2050, while intact forests are 
                         located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, 
                         deforestation expands to almost all Bolivian lowlands reaching 
                         37,944,434. ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These 
                         deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to 
                         show how current and future decisions carried out by the 
                         neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect 
                         deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, 
                         recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a 
                         central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and 
                         managing a transition towards sustainable land use.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.envres.2015.10.010",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2015.10.010",
                 issn = "0013-9351",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "tejada_deforestation.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}